Guest Post: Thoughts on Spurs

Ryan is right of course that Spurs screwed up by selling Berbatov and Keane and not adequately replacing them, but I think that misses the real depth of the problem, which is that their management structure is a mess and there is no evidence of consistent long-term planning.

Spurs have never really recovered from two events: losing the food-poisoning game on the last day of the 2006 season, which kept them out of the Champions League and forced them to sell Carrick; and spending 16.5m on Darren Bent when they had 3 good strikers already and the manager didn’t want him.

They still managed to finish 5th in 2007, but they were farther off Arsenal than the year before (even after adding Berbatov), and they have never adequately replaced Carrick’s role in midfield. This has been their biggest long-term strategic error; their midfield has been a mess really ever since then.

It’s especially galling because they spent the equivalent of the Carrick money on Bent, who is not one-tenth as good a player and filled no need while creating a selection headache. The Bent signing (among other things) also led to massive infighting between Jol and Comolli at the start of last season, which led to the poor start, which saw Jol sacked and eliminated any possibility of catching Arsenal for fourth. It also forced them to dump Jermaine Defoe at a reduced price, since they had too many highly paid strikers and no one wanted Bent, even though Defoe is an excellent young player who they should have held on to, knowing that Berbatov at least was likely to consider moving on after the season.

The lack of Champions League football then led to the departures of Berbatov and Keane. Berba might have left anyway, but Keane was club captain and a fan favorite and I think he would have stayed had Spurs made the Champions League, or even looked seriously likely to challenge for it this year. But Keane saw Berbatov was likely to go, knew the management structure was a mess and the team was unbalanced, saw the writing on the wall and decided to get out – can’t blame him for that.

The transfer activity this summer similarly showed no consistent strategy. While as a matter of money they were right to wait to sell Berbatov until the last moment (since Utd. ultimately did meet their 30+m valuation), as a matter of strategy it was stupid, because it left them no time to buy a replacement. And it seems they never planned on selling Keane and were blindsided by his decision to leave.

Their other signings this summer don’t make a lot of sense either. Pavluchenko was clearly a desperate grab for the only half-decent striker on the market at the deadline. Modric, Bentley, and Gio are all good players, but it’s hard to see how they can all play together, especially when Jenas and Lennon are still around. They still don’t have a competent holding midfielder (neither Zakora or Huddlestone have been any good there), both of their first choice centerbacks are notoriously fragile, the leftback is 19 and coming off an injury, the rightback is not proven at this level … these are all areas that needed strengthening more than the attacking midfielder position.

Take a look at the XI Spurs started against Pompey last week:

Gomes, Dawson, Assou-Ekotto, Corluka, Gilberto, Woodgate, O’hara, Zokora, Jenas, Bentley, Pavlyuchenko.

Who in this side would start for a Top Four club? Perhaps Woodgate (who has always been a class player when healthy) and maybe Bentley. It’s a mid-table lineup, not as good on paper even as Villa or Everton or Pompey, and that’s before considering the chemistry issues. Considering how much money they’ve spent, it’s not very good. And now the players know the management is screwed up and that Ramos is not really in charge. Ramos is a good manager – you don’t finish 2^nd in La Liga and win consecutive UEFA cups without being capable – but he has no real power in the club and the players know it. Hence they play without any commitment or sound tactical organization.

Tottenham’s problem is that firing Ramos won’t help that much. Getting rid of Jol last year only led to a marginal improvement in results; beating everyone else’s reserves in the League Cup is not that impressive. Any new manager would face the same problem Ramos has: lack of control over transfer policy, infighting with the board, players aware of this. Add this to the increasing instability and it will be hard to attract a quality manager. Levy needs to fire Comolli, give the manager (either Ramos or someone else) complete control, hand him the Berbatov/Keane transfer kitty, and then get the hell out of the way. But that’s not likely to happen. I still think Spurs are too talented to get relegated, but you never know.