Why do I insist on looking at clubs I dislike? Well, at any rate, the series continues, with a two-parter on Real Madrid. This springs in part from an exchange with two friends who I hope to persuade to weigh in. Because I don’t like (understatement) Real Madrid for reasons that should be obvious to all right-thinking individuals, the emphasis here is looking at the team and finding weaknesses. In Part 2, I scout potential transfer targets to repair some of the weaknesses. I think this is particularly timely in light of their recent El Clasico loss to Barca and dismissal from the Champions’ League at the hands of Lyon.
Pepe Loses His Rag
Brian asserted that Madrid has done a good job of assembling young cover for its first-choice squad,which I largely agree with. However, some of that cover, young and old, are not producing the goods. Meanwhile, some of their (admittedly few) weaknesses are a result of their ridiculous internal politics and unforeseeable things like Pepe’s ongoing descent into madness.
The tactics assumed are Madrid’s usual approximation of a 4-1-3-2 or 4-2-3-1.
Defense:
Marcelo is quite dangerous coming forward and his fast attacking is a great change of pace for a side that usually doesn’t build from the back but rather gets the ball as quickly as possible to their big stars in the attacking third. But he’s a huge liability on defense because he, er, can’t defend at all. He’s fast enough to recover when he gets beaten, but it doesn’t do a whole lot of good since he just gets beaten again or the cross is already off. He’s not a dumb defender and like I said can recover, but he’s approximately Patrice-Evra-sized without the ability to mark or tackle effectively. Royston Drenthe is basically a drastically inferior identical style of player: effectively a left winger who plays left back; he dives into tackles like a winger and runs around a lot without contributing. I don’t rate him, Perez wants to sell him because he’s one of Calderon’s Dutch signings, and I heard Pellegrini doesn’t rate him and tried to sell him in January but had no takers. Obviously this could have just been a rumor, but it’s well known that Perez is trying to dump him and every other Calderon/Dutch player not too good to flog. This tactical approach works with Marcelo but only if whoever is playing the other three defensive positions know they’re often playing 3-4-3.
Arbeloa has arguably been Madrid’s signing of the season so far: since the left back position is basically an extra winger for them (see above), the right back tends to stay home a little more; this has suited Arbeloa to perfection: he has defended well, given up few fouls in a defense often prone to surrendering costly free kicks and cards, and chipped in with many more key passes (and a goal!) than required of him when going forward. This allows them to sometimes play both Arbeloa and Ramos, with Ramos playing center back because….
They have a cover problem, or a quality problem, at center back, which occasionally playing Arbeloa and Ramos at the same time has largely solved. Considering how strong this side is on paper, at least in midfield and attack, frequently starting Pepe or Garay doesn’t cut it. Albiol is very solid, and can actually play left back (albeit without Marcelo’s speed or crossing) in a pinch because as Brian noted, he’s good on the ball for a center back and a smart passer. He has played this role for Spain on occasion as well. He has been favored alongside a rotating cast of Ramos, Pepe and, occasionally, Garay or (rarely) the never-fit Metzelder. Pepe more frequently started in the past, but this year he only played 10 league games before tearing up his knee–he’s out for the rest of the season. This has been a blessing in disguise, in a way, because Arbeloa has been so good they’ve used Ramos at CB to accommodate both and cover Pepe’s absence, but in Metzelder’s frequent absence it leaves them short of cover. Pepe has become a major head case; he used to be solid but hotheaded–good but too many dumb fouls and cards–but now he’s unreliable and NUTS. He keeps giving interviews where he says things like he doesn’t like playing any more–he almost retired after the stomping/kicking incident–and seems to be fading on the field as well. Garay‘s Wikipedia entry was clearly written by his mother because every word of that is theoretically accurate but has rarely been seen since he signed for Madrid (other than his size!). He has great skills, and I was sad when Madrid signed him since then he wouldn’t play for either a team I support or at least in England where I’d watch him more, but lord knows they haven’t been seen in Madrid colors. He gets white-hankied by the fans (like being booed, but with the extra component of “we’d like you to never wear the shirt again, por favor”).
Basically, if Metzelder ever gets healthy for two games in a row again, they should start him and Albiol or Albiol and Ramos at CB. I have to think Garay’s time at Madrid is limited–although if he was at my team playing like crap I’d give him time because he’s so young and so entertainingly gigantic–unless Pepe loses his mind completely and gets sold first. Also, cruciate ligament damage has a way of leaving a player a shadow of his former self (Jimmy Bullard’s bum knee, Ledley King’s new life as an alcoholic, half-crippled brawler who puts in one brilliant shift in defense a month, Maxi Rodriguez rarely looking like an improvement on Albert Riera or Ryan Babel). On the other hand, Metzelder’s contract is up in the summer and I’d be surprised if it were renewed, so he’ll probably move on the same way he arrived: injured and on a free transfer. This may mean Garay is given the time he needs to develop more since there will be another squad spot open.
Midfield:
The first-choice midfield is disgustingly awesome and they have good cover. Kaka has underwhelmed but he’s still Kaka. Cristiano Ronaldo has only gotten (predictably) more petulant since his move to Spain, but no one can plausibly criticize his goalscoring record. Obviously the all-out attacking big signings are awesome, as is Xabi Alonso. It’s too bad for Fernando Gago that he’s riding the bench behind Alonso and Lass Diarra, but he probably won’t be around for long. Madrid agreed to sell Gago for 14 million pounds to Manchester City on deadline day in January, but the deal fell through because the Spanish agents didn’t realize that deadline day ends at 7 or 9 pm or whatever it is in England (it runs till midnight in Spain). I bet the deal goes through in the summer. Granero plays every offensive midfield position well and looks like good cover. Mahamadou (the other) Diarra has played about twice as much as Gago this season, but still as cover for Alonso and Lass, and perhaps Madrid have decided that at 24, Lass is all the future they need for now at this position, with Diarra offering further cover, and therefore decided they can do without Gago.
If you didn’t already, you should know a bit about Real Madrid’s internal politics. Guti and Raul don’t earn starts. They don’t have to earn anything. They play when they demand to, and players they don’t like (at least in Raul’s case) get sold except in exceptional circumstances. Guti is aging and it’s showing, and he’s never been a regular, every game starter in his entire career–but has always made many appearances between starts and subs, and the occasional THAT ASSIST makes him worth keeping around. He’s also an idiot. While we’re on the subject of politics, Van der Vaart was very publicly offered around for sale on the same list as Sneijder, Robben, van Nistelrooy, and Drenthe: the entire Calderon-signed Dutch contingent is not wanted under the Perez regime. Van der Vaart’s recent injury record meant he was less sought after; I really had hoped United would sign Sneijder or VdV; as Scholes ages and Anderson talks his way out of a United career I still think VdV would be a good option and he’s definitely available. He’s good but doomed at Madrid.
One other player to consider is Ruben de la Red, currently out for the entire season–unregistered in Real Madrid’s squad–with a heart condition. He may never play again, but if he does, he’s good and provides cover for any central midfielder, attacking or defending.
Attack:
Benzema‘s less-than-scintillating form may well be a matter of settling in, because as I have probably already made clear I rate him highly, but there have been consistent rumors of late that Perez will accept the reality that Higuain is fantastic, sell Benzema, and either promote from within or bid for a new plaything. I hope this is true for entirely self-interested (as a Manchester United supporter) reasons but think it would be a stupid move on Madrid’s part if it actually happened. Higuain’s scoring rate is 1 goal per 77 minutes of play. I don’t have to tell you this is utterly absurd. It also makes him the most effective striker, statistically, in any of Europe’s major leagues this season, obviously excluding weird stuff like players who have played 1 game all season and scored twice. Karim Benzema, he of the underperforming-all-season (which we have, in my opinion rightly, chalked up to settling in), gets paid 8.5 million euros a year, plus goal bonuses rumored to be in the neighborhood of 15k per. Higuain currently makes 1.5 million euros a year and was offered a contract extension today (after scoring twice this weekend) that would give him a raise to 2.5 million, and similarly increase his bonuses. Raul makes substantially more than twice that, although presumably his contractual bonuses aren’t doing him much good.
To put this in perspective, Higuain is being offered a contract that will pay him about the same as Daniel Sturridge, Dean Ashton, Kenwyne Jones, Tuncay, Emile Heskey, or Andy Johnson (all paid 2-2.5m pounds; the exchange rate is .9 euros to the pound). Roque Santa Cruz gets paid considerably more to sit on the bench at City. In Spain, this is what Florent Sinama-Pongolle makes at crosstown rivals Atletico. Espanyol’s Luis Garcia scored 5 goals last year but contributes an assist now and then–not a bad player–and gets paid about the same. Basically, this is the going rate for a decent striker at a small-to-midsize club in a top league, not the most efficient poacher in Spain, if not the world, at the richest club, where he has been top scorer two years running. Also Daniel Sturridge. The lesson: what really pays at Real Madrid is to be among Florentino Perez’s favorites, not to play well.
Speaking of which, Raul only plays at all for the above-stated political reasons; he is no longer nearly the player Negredo is but one of them had to go and it damn sure wasn’t going to be Raul. He has scored 3 league goals this year in 21 appearances, including 13 starts (NOTE: this is now a slightly outdated statistic, but Raul irritates me too much to update it). This is a worse scoring rate than Esteban Granero’s, and Granero actually provides other things to the side as an attacking midfielder. The Negredo deal was purely business and he’s never played for the Madrid first team in a competitive game: Real Madrid sold him to Almeria in 2007 but with a 5m euro buyback option, which they exercised this year, only to sell him on to Sevilla for what he’s worth–15m euros. They have a buyback option on this deal too, which presumably means that if Raul retires next year and Negredo continues to look good, they can buy him back again (if he’d rejoin the club that has dumped him twice).
In summary, this team is incredible going forward, but it has some weaknesses at the back that they should be easily able to address in the summer, especially since they appear to have so few weaknesses elsewhere. I actually think that the one player that perhaps needed no mention goes a long way to covering the team’s only real weaknesses: Iker Casillas, who must be second only to Buffon in the world at GK, and is backed up by Jerzy Dudek and has a young understudy in the form of the promising Antonio Adan. The arrival of Arbeloa has, in a way, solved the center back problems caused by Pepe’s unreliability and injury, Metzelder’s injury-proneness, and Garay’s unpopularity and frequent shiteness. However, as Pellegrini will almost certainly be replaced, the team might get switched around significantly again in the summer. I predict the departures of Metzelder, VdV, and Gago, and Drenthe if a buyer can be found. I’ll be interested to see if they are replaced from the academy or by new signings, and if Drenthe is replaced by an actual left back to provide a different tactical option to Marcelo; Raul must surely be looking at a future involving moving into coaching and making fewer and fewer appearances, and Guti has made noises about leaving and he is similarly aging but without the political clout Raul has at the club. I initially thought that another attacking player would be needed in the next year or two, but the impending Sergio Canales signing appears to have solved that potential problem, unless Benzema is sold.
In Part II, I will address these needs.
Recent Comments