And now, a great analysis of Barca’s incredible run this season, by contributor Corey. For Ryan’s earlier analysis of Barcelona’s transfer policy, with Corey’s comments and updates, look here.

Barca have been in simply incredible form this year. They have not lost a league game since the opening game of the season and have now won 16 of the last 18, with victories over all their major league rivals. After thrashing Depor 5-0 last weekend, they are 12 points clear at the halfway point of the season. Even more amazingly, they have scored 59(!!!) goals in only 19 league games, while having allowed only 13, for a goal differential of +46 (in only half a season). 59 goals in 19 games is unreal – that’s averaging more than 3 goals a game. I’d be surprised if any team has done that for a full season in a major European league in a very long time.

For comparison, the 04 undefeated Arsenal team finished +47, the 05 Chelsea team that won the title with only one loss and a record point total finished +57, and last year’s Man Utd team that won the League/Europe Double finished +58. The dominant 05/06 Barca team that won 2 league titles and the European Cup finished +44 and +42. Last year’s Madrid team (that set a new Liga record for points in a season with 85) finished +48.

Barca is on pace to finish +92, with 100 points.  They are equally good home and away.

As of now it appears that Kaka will not be joining Manchester City but Craig Bellamy and Nigel De Jong will. Although I had not included the mental Welshman and the young Dutch enforcer in my recklessly speculative analysis, they certainly meet the club’s needs, with a talented holding midfielder and a proven striker always likely to be a priority now that the hole at left back has been sewn up. Look for a ‘keeper and, given Mr. Dunne’s propensity for mad lunges resulting in sendings-off and Mr. Richards’ propensity for eating all the pies–something Dunne could say a thing or two about–another defender to make the move to Eastlands in the coming week or two. More analysis will come with daylight. Good night moon, good night world, and good night Mr. Bush.

Having watched the inauguration to my satisfaction, I’ll move on with my promised further analysis of City’s moves and options.

Firstly, Corey’s comment below merits quotation and response here:

I don’t get the Bellamy signing. 14m for a small guy with a history of injury problems, a fiery temper, and only 5 goals from 16 matches this year? Really, that was the best they could do? Spurs paid about the same for Defoe who in my mind is a far superior player (and certainly has a much better goal scoring record). And City already have plenty of pace (Bellamy’s best quality) in Robinho and SWP.

Oh and a great quote stolen from Soccernet’s Bellamy Bio: “Once described by Sir Bobby Robson as ‘a man who could start a fight in an empty room’”

My response:
In short, I agree. And, in the pace stakes, don’t forget Benjani and Jo–what they lack in finesse they make up for in pace and, in Benjani’s case, physical presence. I’d mention Darius Vassell here too except for the obvious fact that he’s utter crap. I too struggle to see what Bellamy adds, although his Premiership experience has some value. Considering that lesser clubs are rumored to be considering a loan move for Lyon’s silky-finishing Fred until he returns to Brazil at the end of the season, 14m for another of something they really already have does seem a waste. The Fred example, if nothing else, illustrates that there are players more in line with City’s needs available for less during this window. A comparable player I mentioned in my earlier analysis of City’s needs is Bafetimbi Gomis, also currently plying his trade in France. And surely City’s money could have persuaded Lukas Podolski to leave Bayern for Manchester rather than for Cologne…one would think, anyway.

Finally, if City still wants a marquee signing, and fails (as appears likely) in its bid to bring in Juventus’ shot-stopper Buffon, why not consider David Silva and David Villa of Valencia? There are good reasons for each of them:
1. Villa is an absolutely top-quality striker and among the best finishers in the world who, going from quotes during his previous round of contract negotiations, likes money a lot. Perfect for City.
2. Silva is an elegant attacking midfielder not unlike Kaka; moreover, he is useful on the wings as well, which frees Robinho to play up front, as a certain Mr. Ireland does not appear to need replacing in the center of midfield.
3. Perhaps most importantly, Valencia are broke. This means that the players are likely to be available, albeit for big money given their talent, but also that the club is in no position to hold suitors to too high a ransom. Moreover, a going-nowhere club about to offload its highest earners is not an attractive place to stay, and in all likelihood a decent club likely to move up in the world rather than a big boy on the verge of collapse–and unable to come anywhere near matching the wages on offer at the pursuing club–could prove an attractive option.

Ultimately, it’s likely that the pair of Villa and Silva could be had for perhaps half the mooted fee on offer for Kaka, and would add a great deal to City’s need both for skill and big names.

Udinese's Gokhan Inler

Well, I’m a month older but no wiser, and the long-overdue second installment of my “if I were Mark Hughes playing real-life Football Manager with oil money” feature is ready. I apologize for the delay, finals have a way of throwing one hell of a spanner into life. Before I move on to my analysis of Hughes’ options, both within the squad and without, I’ll address a few events of the past month that affect both Part 1 and Part 2.

First among these is Billy Gallas’ ongoing, slow-motion flameout at Arsenal. His erratic behavior, coupled with Kolo Toure’s erratic form and Arsenal’s lack of depth at the back meant that they were likely to be in the market for an experienced center back come January in any case, but now that Gallas’ departure seems inevitable, sooner or later, this search has taken on new urgency. Although I think Philippe Mexes is the ideal signing for Arsenal (speaks French, is an established, consistent defender, is a cooler head than Gallas or most of the rest of the current squad, and is probably available due to Roma’s current troubles), City may have more serious competition for the signings of some of my recommendations, particularly Sergey Ignashevich (linked with Arsenal before) and Petri Pasanen (cool head and would be able to cover for Sagna on the right since Wenger appears convinced that Eboue is, despite all evidence to the contrary, an effective right midfielder).

The second is Lassana Diarra’s move, agreed today, to Real Madrid for a fee of 20 million pounds. Long before Mark Hughes went public with his interest in Diarra, he was the centerpiece of my recommended midfield signings; now that Hughes has failed to hijack his transfer to Madrid, this option has obviously evaporated. I had originally included Xabi Alonso as another solid choice to shore up the midfield, but he appears to have regained Rafa Benitez’s faith at Liverpool with a series of great performances this season and thus will probably not be going anywhere unless (until?) Gareth Barry joins.

Manchester City’s manager Mark Hughes (this hurts a little to write, as a Manchester United supporter who includes Sparky on his shortlist of possible successors to Sir Alex Ferguson, but that’s a post for another day) has just returned from a meeting with the new owner of his club at which he is reported to have presented an outline of his plans for the club’s future and a shopping list of players he wishes to pursue. As the January transfer window nears, much of the football world will be very, very interested to see what Mark Hughes does with Manchester City’s new riches with the time to apply it judiciously. After all, the takeover occurred on the last day of the summer window, and the club lodged several last-second bids, of which only the bid trumping Chelsea’s for Robinho was accepted and came to fruition.

Mark Hughes of Manchester City

Disregarding the rumors that Hughes will not be the man at the reins come January, I, undoubtedly like many other armchair managers among football fandom, have been giving some thought to what Sparky might do. I take him at his word that he will spend sensibly and judiciously, and take with a mountain of salt the club’s owner’s promises of delivering Leo Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo and a galaxy of Galacticos. Thus, I have assembled a careful analysis of the club’s weaknesses, with proposed solutions, and some points that could be strengthened with a good buy. Even if money’s no object, a player has to be willing to come to the club, and I’m going to assume that this time around the players will know that there are two clubs in Manchester. I’ve put some thought into who might fit the club’s needs, who Hughes may want, and who would be willing to join. The money-no-object element of City’s approach may be necessary in some cases; by and large, though, I’ve assembled a list of players likely to be available at fairly reasonable prices (well short of the 135 million pounds City’s owner would apparently be willing to spend on Mr. Ronaldo, anyway). After disposing of deadwood, I’ll start in goal and work up the field, position by position, primarily using the attack-minded 4-4-2 Hughes seems to favor.

Deadwood: City has moved in the right direction already by ridding itself of Emile Mpenza; if Danny Mills isn’t gone already his contract is up at the end of the season. Darius Vassell is just not good enough for a club of City’s aspirations, but should be able to find a home at a lower-table team with no trouble. Valeri Bojinov has been injured too often and too long to know for sure, but he hasn’t produced even when healthy and should be allowed to move on.

My friend Brian’s comments following the incredible midweek North London derby (Spurs came from 4-2 down in the 89th minute to draw 4-4, for those who missed it):

I stand by my comments made two years ago that Arsenal needs to bring in some established, stout, consistent defenders if it ever wants to win another premier league title. Obviously the lack of a good holding midfielder is an issue, but I think the team’s main flaw has always been giving up too many goals. I never liked the signing of Gallas, and I don’t think the signing of Silvestre was much of an improvement either.

Response from a Gunners supporter:

i don’t think they would look as bad if our midfield wasn’t so soft. fabregas hasn’t been stepping up and the lack of a good center midfield pairing for him is glaring. it’s a sad time for the gunners.

My thoughts:

I think Toure and Clichy are very solid, and in fact that Toure should be captain. At this point everyone knows my thoughts on Gallas. Silvestre was a near-laughable signing, but he does fill a niche the team needed–cover at center back and left back.

Robbie Keane seems to be a bit like the mythical Mothman: appearances foretell doom. There is a remarkable curse that seems to follow him around, and befall clubs that dare sell him. Robbie Keane’s professional career and the Curse of the Keano:

Who, me?

• Robbie Keane came through the youth ranks at Wolves, and after a few years in the first team, left for Coventry City in 1999. Wolves nearly got relegated from the Championship (compared to an expected promotion challenge). When they did go up in 2003, they failed to win a single away game and were relegated in last place.

• Keane spent only one season at Coventry City before leaving for Inter Milan in 2000. Coventry were relegated at the end of the 2000-2001 season (by losing a game 3-2 after leading 2-0 at halftime), ending 34 years in the top flight. This unexpected relegation also sent Coventry into a downward financial spiral, which immediately scuppered plans for a new, state-of-the-art, 45,000 seat stadium. Instead, they ended up with a new but spartan 21,000 seat arena that the club do not even own. In 2007, the club filed for administration but was saved with only an hour to spare.

While Tottenham and Newcastle amusingly self-destruct, Manchester City prepares to spend more oil money, and the promoted sides overperform (making it much more likely that the Spurs and the Toon go down), another club is facing its own crisis. The risk of utter financial ruin that West Ham faces is very real. While certainly less due to mismanagement than Leeds’ fall from grace a few years ago, from which they are finally beginning to recover, there is still an element of schadenfreude from a large segment of supporters who feel that West Ham profited unduly from Carlos Tevez’s illegal registration. Finally, I and many others see it as a cautionary tale of what can happen when clubs survive on utterly unrealistic financial models. It is here that the mismanagement angle comes into play.

There are four major factors to West Ham’s financial crisis: the settlement with Sheffield United over Carlos Tevez’s goals that kept the Hammers up, the collapse of shirt sponsor XL, the ridiculous wage bill Eggert Magnusson began and current chairman Bjorgulfur Gudmundsson prolonged, and the collapse of Landsbanki and resultant relative poverty of Gudmundsson. Let’s take a quick look at each factor.

The great Roy Keane bemoans the difficulties Sunderland face in attracting the best young talent, on the quite sensible basis of Sunderland’s unfortunate location in Sunderland:

We have tough battles up here in terms of signing young players and are restricted in terms of our location. You can only bring in kids from a certain radius and a lot of our radius is in the water. Any good fish out there?

Next week: Namor the Sub-Mariner makes his debut at the Stadium of Light.

Sunderland manager Roy Keane plans his next scouting trip.

This post is derived from one of the email essays that prompted me to start blogging. It is a complete list of Barcelona’s transfers this year with a brief analysis of the club’s transfer policy.

From the email:

When I don’t have reading to do, obviously I do exhaustive soccer-related research. Brian, remember when we were talking about how thoroughly Barca restructured their team this year? Here are their major ins and outs, with their current squad (old players I know they tried to sell marked with an asterisk). Big changes!

Now, the list. First transfers, then the current squad. Note: transfer fees are based on the most reliable news sources available, which in some cases are probably not very reliable.

New Barca manager Pep Guardiola made plenty of changes this summer.

Ryan is right of course that Spurs screwed up by selling Berbatov and Keane and not adequately replacing them, but I think that misses the real depth of the problem, which is that their management structure is a mess and there is no evidence of consistent long-term planning.

Spurs have never really recovered from two events: losing the food-poisoning game on the last day of the 2006 season, which kept them out of the Champions League and forced them to sell Carrick; and spending 16.5m on Darren Bent when they had 3 good strikers already and the manager didn’t want him.

They still managed to finish 5th in 2007, but they were farther off Arsenal than the year before (even after adding Berbatov), and they have never adequately replaced Carrick’s role in midfield. This has been their biggest long-term strategic error; their midfield has been a mess really ever since then.